Potential of US-Iran War
Smith Alhadar
The United States government under President Donald Trump is continuing its wave of pressure on Iran.
Most recently, on May 6, the US deployed its carrier strike group (CSG), comprising the USS Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier and a bombing armada, to the Middle East.
The reason was that, based on intelligence reports, there were indications of real threats on US troops in Iraq, Syria and the surrounding areas. The US has around 5,000 military personnel in Iran and 2,000 personnel in Syria. In 2003, based on fallacious intelligence reports, the US invaded Iraq, also with the USS Abraham Lincoln. Iran has declared the US military a terrorist group as retaliation for the US’ naming of its Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) an international terror organization.
US provocation
US-Iran relations worsened after Trump, on May 8, 2018, unilaterally withdrew the US from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), also known as the Iran nuclear deal. The deal was backed by the P5+1 (the five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council, namely China, the US, the UK, France and Russia, plus Germany) and was endorsed with the UNSC Resolution No. 2231.
The second sanction, on Iran’s central bank and oil and gas sector, came on Nov. 5, 2018. Because of this sanction, even one month before it was imposed, Iranians protested on the streets following the Iranian rial’s plummeting of more than 100 percent that led to significant price hikes.
Previously, in late December 2017 and early January 2018, Iranians from various social classes in 80 cities protested the increasing price of goods, corruption and the Iranian military’s involvement in several Arabian countries. More than 21 people were killed in the ensuing incident. At the time, Trump continued to throw fuel into the fire by provoking Iranians to keep rebelling.
In truth, the US sanctions aimed to isolate Iran, both economically and politically, with the hope that Iranians would eventually dethrone the country’s ruling regime. Seeing that this was not effective, in early May, the US stopped its dispensations on eight countries previously still allowed to import oil from Iran. The goal was that Iran would not be able to export even one drop of its oil. The US even hopes that Iran will disregard the JCPOA, which will enable the US to mobilize international support to engage in war with Iran.
To further provoke Iran, Trump offered the 12-point reconciliation requirement. The 12 requirements for Iran include unconditionally allowing International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) teams to visit all nuclear sites in Iran, ending its support for all “terror” groups in the Middle East, including Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hamas and the Islamic Jihad in Palestine and the Yemeni Houthis.
Afterward, Iran is required to be thoroughly transparent regarding the details of its entire nuclear program linked to its military missions, end all uranium enrichment activities, close its heavy water reactors and end threats on all neighboring countries in the region. Seemingly, the requirements are not based on the goodwill to renegotiate the JCPOA terms but, instead, on an attempt to humiliate Iran. The US understands that Iran will reject the 12 unrealistic requirements, which will then provide justification for the US to impose more sanctions. What did Iran do wrong?
Iran’s biggest mistake is its independence in carrying out its foreign policies. This runs counter to the US’ foreign policy of “no country should rebel against its hegemony”. This doctrine led the US intervening in other countries’ internal matters, both militarily and politically. “Rebellious” countries such as Iran, which is geopolitically perceived as a threat to US interests, must be obliterated. Otherwise, other countries will follow suit. This will disrupt the US’ dignity as the sole superpower.
Iran’s response
Realizing the goal of the US’ sanctions and pressures, Iran has made efforts to minimize its potential military conflict against the superpower. Iran has not even withdrawn itself from the JCPOA despite the European Union being unable to fulfill its pledge to remain in the oil business with Iran. In response to the heavy burden on its domestic economy due to its plummeting foreign income down to 50 percent (Iran relies on oil and gas exports for 65 percent of its foreign income), Iran has sold its oil to “grey markets”. Iran has gained much experience in going around US sanctions since the 1979 revolution.
Iran can still stay afloat because Turkey, Iraq, Russia, Pakistan, India and China still imports its oil on certain payment mechanisms to avoid US sanctions. Amid this psychological war against the US, on May 8, 2019, Iran officially declared to the P5+1 and the European Union that it would reduce its commitment to the JCPOA. This means that Iran will restart its uranium enrichment. The JCPOA limits Iran’s nuclear program. In response, Iran can freely export its oil and gas. However, after the US withdrew from the JCPOA and oil importers kowtowed to threats of US sanctions, Iran has gained no benefits from the JCPOA.
No matter what, Iran’s action in reducing its commitment to the JCPOA has escalated its tensions with the US. Iran must not underestimate the possibility of war with the US and its regional allies. Trump’s inner circle, comprising National Security adviser John Bolton, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and anti-Iran hard-liners in the Congress – alongside Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu and Saudi Arabian Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman – have time and again pressured Trump to fight Iran and curb its increasing influence in the Middle East.
The presence of the USS Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier and the US bombing armada may only aim to intimidate Iran. However, this has broadened the room of conflict sensitivity. If any attack occurs against US interests in the region, no matter by whom, the US and its allies may start a war. Despite being no match against the US’ military power, Iran’s military will prove to be dangerous for oil sources and traffic in the Persian Gulf – and this will cause global oil price hike. Furthermore, the destruction of the Iranian regime will bring about unimaginable consequences in the region. It can even trigger a massive war, considering that Iran has proxies in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Yemen and Palestine. We can only hope that Russia or China are not involved in helping Iran.
Smith Alhadar, Executive Director, Institute for Democracy Education
