Post-Election Cracks in Coalition
Syamsuddin Haris
If the General Elections Commission (KPU) declares Joko “Jokowi” Widodo-Ma\'ruf Amin the winners of the presidential election on May 22, 2019, political parties that backed Prabowo Subianto-Sandiaga Uno will become an opposition coalition in the House of Representatives (DPR). How solid is the Indonesian Adil Makmur Coalition (KIAM), given the cracks that have begun to emerge?
The visit of Agus Harimurti Yudhoyono (AHY) to the State Palace to meet President Jokowi early May 2019, has led to much speculation regarding the solidity and future of KIAM as the supporter of Prabowo-Sandi, namely the Gerindra Party, the Prosperous Justice Party (PKS), the Democratic Party, and the National Mandate Party (PAN).
Before AHY visited the palace, speculation was already rife that there were cracks in the coalition of political parties supporting Prabowo-Sandi after PAN chairman Zulkifli Hasan met Jokowi after the inauguration of the Maluku governor at the State Palace on April 24, 2019.
The letter, dated April 19, 2019, two days after election day, was believed to be SBY’s response to the claim of victory made by Prabowo. The sixth president of the Republic of Indonesia appeared to be "annoyed" by the way Prabowo declared victory without the support of clear data on votes. From Singapore, SBY felt the need to remind his party ranks that the Democrat Party upheld the principle of waiting for the KPK announcement of the official election results, as an institution that has the authority in accordance with the Constitution and the law.
In recent developments, cracks also appeared in the DPR, when the Democrats failed to sign a proposal to form a special committee on the election to investigate allegations of fraud in the 2019 election, such as those made by the PKS, Gerindra and PAN. The Democratic Party seems agree with SBY\'s stance to wait for the official KPU election results, rather than making unnecessary political maneuvers, such as the formation of a special committee.
SBY maneuver
Besides SBY\'s response to Prabowo\'s victory claim, since the beginning the Democrats appeared nervous and uncomfortable being a member of the coalition supporting Prabowo-Sandi. Because SBY-Prabowo negotiations failed to result in the nomination of AHY as Prabowo\'s running mate, despite SBY\'s son having an electability rating higher than that of others previously proposed as Prabowo\'s vice presidential candidate. The Democrats also felt that they had not benefited from electoral incentives
offered by the Prabowo-Sandi pair. It was not surprising that during the election campaign, the ranks of the Democratic Party did not intensely promote Prabowo-Sandi, unlike Gerindra and the PKS.
Therefore, when the quick count results by a number of survey institutions indicated that Jokowi-Amin was more likely to be announced the victors of the presidential election, SBY immediately changed course. SBY\'s aforementioned letter was an indication of the change in course, which then became clearer when AHY visited the palace to meet Jokowi.
In short, if Jokowi-Amin do officially win the presidential election and the former mayor of Solo opens the door to AHY, the Democrats are very likely to join the Indonesian Work Coalition (KIK), a coalition of political parties that support Jokowi. If the Democrats and SBY want to promote AHY as a presidential candidate in the 2024 election, SBY and Ani Yudhoyono\'s eldest son will need experience in governing as a provision for future elections. The opportunity will be opened to AHY if he becomes part of the Jokowi-Amin government, even though that would not be easy. The problem is that the presence of AHY would require the blessings of Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDIP) chairwoman Megawati Soekarnoputri and other KIK political party leaders because the Democrats and AHY did not back Jokowi-Amin in this year\' election.
Zulkifli Hasan vs Amien Rais
Unlike the Democrats, PAN faced almost no political burden in being a member of Prabowo-Sandi\'s coalition. PAN\'s only burden was the failure of the political party, led by Zulkifli Hasan, to get any of its members declared presidential or vice presidential candidates. Even though the PAN National Working Meeting in the second week of August 2018 decided to nominate Zulkifli Hasan (and Ustadz Abdul Somad) as Prabowo\'s running mate, PAN\'s ranks eventually accepted Sandiaga Uno as Prabowo\'s vice-president candidate. Initially it was suspected that an endorsement fee had been involved behind the willingness of PAN and the PKS to accept Sandi, but the Elections Supervisory Agency (Bawaslu) failed to prove the allegation.
Before supporting Prabowo-Sandi, PAN briefly joined the Jokowi government, after the position of administrative and bureaucratic reform minister went to senior PAN member Asman Abnur. Asman resigned as minister when PAN dropped its backing of Jokowi. PAN\'s inclination to enter and then leave coalition lead to much speculation. Among the various speculation was the development of acute internal friction between Prabowo\'s supporters and PAN patron and advisory council chairman Amien Rais as a result of a growing number of PAN members who favored Jokowi, who were possibly led by Zulkifli Hasan himself.
Therefore, one of the obstacles for PAN in rejoining the Jokowi-Amin coalition was the resistance of the Amien Rais faction, which firmly controls PAN. Besides internal resistance, it is very possible that there was also equally strong external resistance from members of the KIK political parties, who could not accept Amien Rais\' criticism of Jokowi, which was consider to be unreasonable.
Pseudo and fluid coalition
Nothing is impossible in politics. Conventional arguments often become the basis for politicians to change positions, attitude and standpoint, usually as a perspective that sees politics as the "art of various possibilities" so that they believe there are no eternal enemies or friends in politics.
It is perspectives like this that have been embraced and developed by political parties in coalitions before and after elections since the New Order era. The experience of the SBY government for 10 years showed the dilution of the position and attitude of political parties in a coalition. The Golkar and PKS parties frequently had different political attitudes and positions from SBY, even though they were in the political coalition that supported him.
The same tendency was seen in the fluid coalition supporting Prabowo-Hatta Rajasa in the 2014 presidential election, the Red and White Coalition (KMP). The Golkar Party, the United Development Party (PPP) and PAN, which were originally in the KMP, eventually left it and joined the Great Indonesia Coalition (KIH), which supported Joko Widodo-Jusuf Kalla in the same presidential election.
So even if the Democratic Party and PAN do eventually leave the KIAM and join the KIK, political realities like this are not a new phenomenon. Even if there is a new development, it would possibly be because of the signs of cracks appearing in the KIAM coalition even before the election results are officially announced by the KPU. It is worth noting that in the past, the PPP, Golkar and PAN left the Prabowo-Hatta Rajasa coalition after the DPR was formed after the 2014 legislative election and the Jokowi-Kalla Working Cabinet was formed.
There are at least three aspects behind the pseudo and fluid coalitions of political coalitions formed prior to and after the election. First, our political parties are generally not ideological and the coalition base is more about the short-term interests of political elites than about the similarities in visions and political direction for a better Indonesia.
Second, political coalitions since the era of the late president Abdurrahman Wahid until Jokowi have generally been formed as a gentleman\'s agreement, one that is considered nonbinding by the political party elites.
Third, political parties are compelled to join a coalition because it is required by law. If political a party does not officially support a presidential candidate, it will not be eligible to participate in the next election.
Loss for the nation
The question is, should the Democrats and PAN leave the KIAM and join the KIK? If the formation of the coalition is intended to improve the effectiveness of government through the election results, the KIK, which is presently backed by five major political parties, the PDI-P, Golkar, NasDem, the PKB and the PPP, with the assumption that the Hanura Party will not pass the 4 percent electoral threshold, has enough of a majority. The provisional results of the recapitulation of the six political parties\' total votes reached 56.15 percent. This means the size of the coalition supporting Jokowi-Amin in the DPR will be more than enough to pass various government policies in the DPR.
Even though the choice of coalition is the political right of every political party, the best choice for our nation would be for the Democrats and PAN to remain in the KIAM, which supports Prabowo-Sandi as part of the opposition coalition in the DPR. Whatever happens, a healthy democracy requires a relatively strong opposition so that various government policies can be criticized and corrected by the force of the opposition in the DPR. Moreover, an overly large coalition that supports the government would have the potential to produce transactional politics, which would only benefit the elites of coalition parties.
It would be the nation\'s loss if all political parties were to join the government and become part of the executive power. After all, fighting for people\'s aspirations and destiny does not have to be entirely through the executive path. The path of the political opposition at the DPR, as well as the path of the power of civil society outside the DPR, is no less honorable than the struggle through the executive line.
Syamsuddin Haris, Research Professor at LIPI
