Races for Loyalty

KOMPAS/WAWAN H PRABOWO

Toward the Elections of Regional Heads in Bekasi and West Java Province in 2018, the faces of candidates for regional heads have started to appear in a number of places. Unfortunately, the posters or billboards of the faces of the regional head candidates are recklessly installed in any places, as seen on Jalan Raya Bintara, West Bekasi, West Java, Monday (23/4/2018).

Just one month ahead of voting day on June 27, a new chapter has begun in the gubernatorial races in West Java, Central Java and East Java.

Within this relatively short period of time, candidates will not only chase and strive to improve their respective popularity but the races to maintain loyalty has begun. What matters now is maintaining loyalty among supporters and attracting voters amid fragile loyalty from rivals’ camp.

These races for loyalty will determine candidates’ success. This is especially because most voters have now decided who they will support in the election. This means, whoever best “manages” supporters’ loyalty will win the election. On the contrary, those who let their guards down will be defeated. This is reflected in the results of two surveys conducted by Kompas research and development (R&D) division in each of the three provinces.

In West Java, for instance, the race remains focused on two pairs, namely Ridwan Kamil-Uu Ruzhanul and Deddy Mizwar-Dedi Mulyadi. Survey said that both pairs have comparable electability. However, in terms of geopolitics in West Java, each of the pairs controls different regions. There are regions that serve as strongholds for either of the pairs. On the other hand, there are “no man’s lands” that are still up for grabs.

As support for Ridwan Kamil-Uu Ruzhanul and Deddy Mizwar-Dedi Mulyani has begun to crystallize, the Sudrajat-Akhmad Syaikhu pair is moving aggressively from below. The pair has enjoyed a significant boost to their popularity. Meanwhile, support for TB Hasanuddin-Anton Charliyan relatively stagnates.

KOMPAS/P RADITYA MAHENDRA YASA

Central Java gubernatorial and deputy gubernatorial candidates Ganjar Pranowo-Taj Yasin (left) and Sudirman Said-Ida Fauziyah attend a public debate organized by the Central Java General Elections Commission (KPU Central Java) at Hotel Patra Jasa, in Semarang city, Central Java on Friday (20/4/2018).

In Central Java, the issue of supporters’ loyalty is also key. The Ganjar Pranowo-Taj Yasin pair remains the one to beat. Thus far, it has been difficult to defeat their popularity. Their rival, Sudirman Said-Ida Fauziah, has succeeded to boost their electability significantly in the past three months. However, their efforts have not been enough to dissuade the loyalty of Ganjar-Taj Yasin’s supporters.

Fierce competition

Fierce competition is under way in East Java. The two pairs, Khofifah Indar Parawansa-Emil Elestianto Dardak and Saifullah Yusuf-Puti Guntur Soekarno, are neck and neck thus far. Similar to the West Java race, the electability of the two pairs are relatively equal, with a gap less than the margin of error.

The difference is that, in East Java, there are no clear geopolitical lines that separate supporters of both pairs. In West Java, there are clear bases of support for each candidate pair. In East Java, such a clear division is nonexistent. Khofifah-Emil and Saifullah-Puti Guntur fight fiercely for supports in all cities and regencies in the province.

Kompas/Bahana Patria Gupta

Candidate pairs Khofifah Indar Parawansa-Emil Elestianto Dardak (left) and Saifullah Yusuf-Puti Guntur Soekarno are seen during the drawing and announcement of candidates to contest East Java regional election at Hotel Mercure, Surabaya on Tuesday (13/2/2018).

Political lines between dominant parties in East Java, including the National Awakening Party (PKB), the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDIP), the Golkar Party, the United Development Party (PPP), the Democratic Party, and others, blur in the support for the gubernatorial candidates. Therefore, the competition will be purely about candidates’ quality and expertise in maintaining their own supporters and attracting undecided voters.

The gubernatorial elections in three provinces in Java, which will involve almost half of all eligible voters in Indonesia, will not be exclusively about competition between candidates. The elections will also provide signals for political parties’ existence ahead of the 2019 general elections. The victors of this year’s gubernatorial elections in Java may head to political glory in the 2019 election. Meanwhile, those who lose may see their popularity eroded even further next year.

In-depth analysis on the survey results in the three provinces in Java will be published in the next three days. The first analysis on the contestation in West Java can be found in today’s newspaper: ‘No Man’s Lands’ to Determine Election on page 5.

Bestian Nainggolan, Kompas R&D