The Dynamics of Policy Response to Covid-19

Covid-19 is about more than just numbers because it touches all aspects of human life, socioeconomic and culture. The message of humanity from this article is that there is always hope that the Covid-19 storm will pass.

KOMPAS/INSAN ALFAJRI

Three Covid-19 patients who have recovered, namely Cases 1, 2, and 3, were discharged from RSPI Sulianti Saroso, Jakarta, Monday (16/3/2020). According to them, people do not need to panic facing Covid-19 because the disease can be overcome by increasing endurance and a healthy lifestyle.

When is the peak of Covid-19 forecast to occur in Indonesia?

The first two people to test positive for COVID-19 were announced on March 2. Furthermore, in the March 2-15 period, the number of confirmed cases increased rapidly to 117. Starting March 16, the government has been aggressively campaigning for people to practice social distancing by reducing activities outside their homes by working, studying and worshiping at home.

In reality, the social restriction campaign has been ineffective as COVID-19 cases spread from Depok to Jakarta to other regions in Indonesia as people moved between provinces. From March 16-31, the number of cases increased quickly to 1,528, with calls for a lockdown in Jakarta increasingly voiced by some people but rejected by the government.

When is the peak of Covid-19 forecast to occur in Indonesia?

Following the rapid increase in cases, the government finally took steps to implement large-scale social restriction (PSBB) on March 31. The PSBB measures include restrictions to school, workplace and religious activities and restrictions on activities in public places and facilities.

On April 10, the Jakarta administration officially implemented PSBB measures. This was followed by the implementation of PSBB in Bogor, Depok, Tangerang and Bekasi (Bodetabek); several cities/regencies in West Java, Central Java and East Java; and several cities/regencies and provinces outside Java. The implementation of PSBB measures at the provincial level was first carried out by Jakarta, then followed by West Sumatra on April 23. If PSBB measures are extended to other provinces, it is expected that the chain of transmission of Covid-19 can be stopped.

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There are two main policies to PSBB measures, namely requiring people to maintain distance by imposing social restrictions and limiting activities by requiring people to stay at home and preventing mudik (exodus) travels. The government initially appealed to people not to participate in mudik, but has intensified this to a ban April 25.

KOMPAS/HERU SRI KUMORO

The waiting room is deserted at Pasar Senen Station in Central Jakarta on Friday (24/4/2020). Starting Friday, in a follow-up to the imposition of large-scale social restrictions (PSBB), all passenger trains are not operating. The suspension of passenger train operations will be effective until 31 May 2020.

Policy response pattern

The storyline of the COVID-19 outbreak and the government’s response can be explained in four patterns: (1) the rapid increase in COVID-19 cases within two months to 7,000 positive cases, with this number rising to 9,511 cases and 733 deaths as of April 29; (2) the gradual strengthening of policy responses, ranging from appeals, warnings, prohibitions, up to threats of sanctions; (3) the pattern of social restrictions, which were originally based on city/regency/province approaches, has shifted to an area-based approach (Greater Jakarta and Greater Bandung) in an integrated manner; (4) the pattern of increasing restrictions on mobility, beginning with appeals to stay at home, work from home and worship at home up until the mudik ban to stop movement between provinces.

The four patterns intertwine with each other in a series of reciprocity which the writer calls the dynamics of policy response to COVID-19 in Indonesia. The question is, when will COVID-19 end? The certain answer is that no one knows because the second wave of COVID-19 cases could reappear like in

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Wuhan, China, after the COVID-19 outbreak was declared over. When is the COVID-19 peak forecast to happen in Indonesia? After the peak period it will be followed by zero addition of new positive cases so that the COVID-19 mitigation efforts will focus on patients in treatment, which will ultimately reduce the rapid death rate and rapidly increase the rate of recovery.

Based on dynamic system modeling, using data until April 25 (52nd day since first case), the results of the simulation of policy effects are grouped into: (i) effects of policy 1, tight control over social distancing and movement restrictions; (ii)effects of policy 2, tight control over social distancing and tight control of movement restrictions; (iii) effects of policy 3, very strict control over social distancing and movement restrictions.

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Lever of success

From the results of modeling simulations, the number of COVID-19 cases is predicted to reach its peak as follows: (i) if policy 1 is maintained, namely tight control over social distancing and movement restrictions, the peak will occur around the 103rd day since the first case, namely around June 10. Then, (ii) under policy 2, meaning if policy 1 is strengthened with very tight control on movement of people within and among cities/regencies/provinces, the peak will occur around the 93rd day since the first case, namely around June 1.

Furthermore, (iii) under policy 3, meaning if policy 1 is strengthened with very strict controls, both in maintaining social distancing in permitted places of activity and restrictions on the movement of people within and among cities/regencies/provinces, the peak will also occur around the 93rd day since the first case, namely around June 1.

Also read : Getting Through COVID-19 Pandemic

The lesson learned from this policy simulation is that the success of the policy is very much determined by the very strict control over restrictions on the movement of people within and among cities/regencies/provinces. Data on the biggest addition of new positive cases recorded on the 46th day (data of 400 new positive cases), after which it tends to continue to decline.

Assuming the decline in new cases will continue, it is predicted that the number of positive cases will reach around 11,000 people if the current policy continues. The estimated number of positive cases will be reduced to around 10,000 people if the current policy is improved with very strict control over restrictions on the movement of people within and among cities/regencies/provinces.

DOKUMENTASI LIPI

Erman Aminullah

Apart from the above forecasts -- which could be mistaken because of mistaken assumptions -- COVID-19 is about more than just numbers because it touches all aspects of human life, socioeconomic issues and culture. The message of humanity from this article is that there is always hope that the COVID-19 storm will pass. Definitely!

Erman Aminullah, Research Professor of Science and Technology Policy, the Indonesian Institute of Sciences (LIPI).