Make Sure Not to be Late

Hopefully, the country’s third-quarter growth of 5.72 percent will have a positive impact on employment. Whatever the problems affecting the fate of the workforce must be observed and anticipated well.

KOMPAS/RHAMA PURNA JATI

Thousands attended the job fair exhibition, at the Hall of SMK Negeri 2 Palembang, Tuesday (18/10/2022). In the exhibition, there were 30 companies that opened about 1,000 job vacancies. The number of job seekers reached 5,000 people.

Turmoil may sometimes be hidden beneath something that looks beautiful on the surface. Therefore, be careful with everything, even if it looks fine.

Since the Covid-19 pandemic started in March 2020, waves of layoffs have occurred everywhere. As of August 2020, as many as 29.12 million working-age people were affected by the economic impacts of the pandemic.

Two and a half years later, the pandemic is under control, although new variants are still emerging and vaccination is still a problem in poor countries. The movement of people and goods has begun to increase, spinning the wheels of the economy faster. However, the economic turnaround has been hampered by a global recession caused, among others, by inflation, supply chain disruption, and the Russia-Ukraine war.

Also read:

> Indonesia Can Survive Recession While Economic Growth Slows

> Inflation Set to Soar

In the midst of this gloomy global outlook, the Indonesian economy is still growing. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimates that the Indonesian economy will grow 5.3 percent in 2022. It is better than the global economy, which is estimated to grow 3.2 percent. Bank Indonesia (BI) estimates that the Indonesian economy will grow 4.5-5.3 percent.

During its regular meeting at the end of October, the Financial System Stability Committee (KSSK) warned that the global economy was slowing down, leading to increased uncertainty. On the other hand, the national economy continued to show an upward trend. This encouraging performance was partly due to high household consumption and good export performance.

No country is immune to the effects of a global recession, although each country will feel the impacts differently. This is dependent on a country's exposure to the global economy, for example, in terms of trade and capital flows. Data from Statistics Indonesia (BPS) indicate that Indonesia's trade balance at the end of September 2022 recorded a surplus of US$39.867 billion.

KOMPAS/RADITYA HELABUMI

The queue of vehicles at the business center of Jalan Sudirman, Jakarta, during work hours, Tuesday (1/11/2022). Towards the end of 2022, various economic predictions predict that in 2023 the global economy will face the threat of inflation, high interest rates and a recession.

A Bloomberg survey conducted in July showed that Indonesia had a recession probability of 3 percent. However, there is nothing wrong with being vigilant and continuing to monitor the current situation.

Reports on the mass layoffs of tens of thousands of workers in the textile and garment industry, for example, must receive serious attention, because the industry plays an important role in absorbing labor. However, as of February 2022, around 59.97 percent of Indonesia’s 135.61 million working-age population work in the informal sector.

Also read:

> Pressure on the Productive Age

> The World and Inflation

The problems in various industries, not only the textiles and garment industry, are caused by not only domestic and export performances, but also the influx of imported products.

Hopefully, the country’s third-quarter growth of 5.72 percent will also have a positive impact on employment. As of February 2022, as many as 11.53 million working-age people were still affected by the impacts of the Covid-19 pandemic, being unemployed or working at reduced hours. Therefore, whatever the problems affecting the fate of the workforce must be observed and anticipated well.

This article was translated by Hendarsyah Tarmizi.