Central Java is the largest source of migrants in Indonesia

Some Central Javanese people have migrated and settled outside their province in order to improve their welfare.

KOMPAS/P RADITYA MAHENDRA YASA

Mudik vehicles passed through the Bawen-Semarang Toll Road smoothly in several points while one-way traffic systems have been implemented in Semarang City, Central Java on Saturday (13/4/2024). The one-way traffic engineering implementation began to be applied at several points prone to congestion and vehicle density when passing through the Trans Java toll road during the return flow.

The high mass movement during Eid 2024 which is aimed at Central Java indicates that this province is the largest source of migrants in Indonesia. For decades, some Central Javanese people have migrated and settled in other areas outside their province in order to improve the quality of life.

The results of the survey on the potential movement of transportation during Eid al-Fitr in 2024 conducted by the Transportation Policy Agency (BKT) of the Ministry of Transportation show potential national movements during Eid al-Fitr estimated at 193.6 million people. The high estimation of the number of movements is due to the majority of Indonesians, up to 71.7 percent, expected to travel during this year's Eid al-Fitr.

The massive mobility of the population during the Idul Fitri holiday is mostly aimed at returning to their hometowns. Around 52 percent of respondents stated that they would undertake the tradition of mudik to return to their place of origin. The rest, totaling 35.2 percent, admitted to visiting parents and relatives in their hometowns, while the remaining 10.6 percent will vacation at a number of tourist destinations.

The large proportion of people who return to their hometowns and visit their relatives in their areas of origin indirectly implies a process of migration of residents from the Central Java region to outside regions throughout Indonesia.

The results of the BKT survey show that the goals of the Eid Al-Fitr-exodus in 2024 are still more or less the same as in previous years. The Java Island region remains the center of national travel destinations. Central Java province is the largest destination for travelers, reaching 31.81 percent. Following that, East Java with 19.44 percent, West Java with 16.59 percent, and Yogyakarta Special Region with around 6 percent.

The high movement of the community to Central Java indicates that it is the center of origin for migrants nationally. Some of the Central Java community in previous years have migrated to other regions for various purposes. In fact, some of them have settled down, started families, and become residents in areas outside their hometown.

Nonetheless, the strong emotional attachment to their hometowns always leads those expatriates to come back to Central Java. They do so to meet their parents, relatives, friends, and even their past acquaintances.

Also read: 2024 Eid Movement Aimed at Migration Sources

KOMPAS/TOTOK WIJAYANTO

Vehicles were stuck in traffic during the homecoming traffic on the Cikopo-Palimanan toll road from Km 173 to Km 175, Sumberjaya, Majalengka, West Java, due to an accident, Sunday (7/4/2024). Apart from accidents, traffic jams usually occur due to queues before entering the rest area and many road users who park their vehicles on the shoulder of the road to rest.

Apart from the flow of homecoming journeys, the high movement of Eid al-Fitr in Central Java can also be seen from the traffic flow moving out of Central Java. Several road sections appear to be crowded with vehicles and there is traffic congestion in some places.

Moreover, just a few days after Eid al-Fitr, traffic jams appeared on the Solo-Semarang toll road and approaching the Palimanan toll gate in Cirebon. This was due to the high flow of vehicles leaving Central Java towards Jakarta.

Traffic congestion also occurs on several public roads in addition to toll roads, such as on the southern route from Yogyakarta to Banyumas and West Java, as well as from Banyumas towards Tegal-Brebes. The high traffic jam towards West Java and Jakarta indicates the high number of migrants returning to their hometowns during this year's Eid al-Fitr holiday. This phenomenon further strengthens the image of Central Java as a source of migrants nationally.

Migration

The high traffic flow towards Central Java and out of Central Java during Eid is now linear with the lifetime net migration that is noted as negative in this province. Lifetime migration or migrant is someone whose province of birth is different from the province where they live at the time of counting. This means that the person has moved to a new location for a long time. For net migration, it means the net reduction between the number of incoming migrants and the number of outgoing migrants.

The Statistical Data of Indonesia's Migration, based on the 2020 Long Form Population Census by BPS, shows that Central Java Province has the largest net migration deficit, reaching minus 4.84 million people. This means that Central Java Province has experienced a reduction in population due to people moving to other locations, reaching 4.84 million people in the last census period.

The next net migration deficit is followed by several other major provinces, such as East Java which reached minus 2.49 million people, North Sumatra minus 1.74 million people, and South Sulawesi around minus one million people.

The data shows that Central Java has the largest net migration deficit in the country, indicating that the province tends to be deserted by its native population. There are several reasons underlying this phenomenon. However, most of the population movement for migration is driven by economic factors.

The results of Kompas's R&D study regarding migration in Indonesia show that almost 98 percent of the lifelong migration process in Indonesia is caused by economic factors. The remainder, less than 3 percent, is caused by other factors.

There are at least four variables that strongly drive lifelong migration in Indonesia. In order of greatest influence, they are provincial minimum wage (UMP), Gross Regional Domestic Product (GRDP) in the industrial sector (industrialization), the labor force, and lastly, investment.

Also read: Tempted to see the gleam of success of migrants, dominating 20 percent of the richest families in Jabodetabek

The four variables have been tested using panel data regression equations and produced statistically significant outputs. Of the four variables, all have positive notations, except investment. Positive notation means encouraging incoming migration flows and negative notation means reducing the rate of incoming migration. So, it can be interpreted that rising wages, the rise of industrialization, and also the increase in the workforce encourage Indonesian people to migrate to other areas and even stay permanently.

For the investment variable, it actually has a negative notation, which means that as the capitalization of capital increases, the number of incoming migrations decreases. This means that the more investments that are made in regions, the less likely there will be an increase in the outflow of migration from the area in question. (Kompas.id, May 4, 2023).

Central Java will be abandoned

Based on econometric tests using data from 2000 to 2020, the projection results indicate that Jateng Province will tend to be abandoned by its residents. This is evident from the coefficient of Jateng Province, which has the largest negative value among other provinces in Indonesia. Without any improvement in the economic aspect, population migration from Jateng will continue and will become the largest proportionally in Indonesia.

The areas that will receive the largest number of migration overflow in Indonesia will be concentrated in the Jakarta, West Java, and Banten regions. These three provinces have the largest positive coefficients among other provinces in Indonesia. This indicates that the three provinces have a very strong economic attraction for people from outside the province.

This is relatively normal because in the three regions, especially around Jabodetabek, they are centers of economic progress that offer many opportunities for advancement. Starting from the industrial sector, services, finance, education, infrastructure, to centralized government in the agglomeration area.

This phenomenon should be a shared concern because it will have an impact on areas that become migration destinations or areas that are left behind by their residents. For migration destination areas, this will cause a number of burdens on the progress of the region if not accompanied by the creation of large employment opportunities. For areas that are left behind, they will tend to lack superior human resources, making it relatively difficult to create creativity and progress for the region.

In the Central Java region, there are several areas that are the main sources for travelers. One of them is indicated by the destination areas of those using public transportation during the Eid holiday, such as several public bus terminals that become congested hubs, such as the bus terminals in Surakarta, Purwokerto, Tegal, Pekalongan, and Wonogiri. For train passengers, most of them are directed towards Purwokerto Station, Purworejo, and around Yogyakarta.

Also read: Jakarta No Longer Attracts Post-wide Newcomers

KOMPAS/NINO CITRA ANUGRAHANTO

The homecoming travelers are waiting for their departure in the free return program provided by the Ministry of Transportation, heading towards Jakarta, at the Tirtonadi Terminal in Surakarta City, Central Java, on Monday (15/4/2024). Free transportation during Eid is still idolized by homecoming travelers from the lower middle class.

The density of passengers in public transportation, as surveyed by BKT, serves as an indicator to detect the main areas of origin for migrants, especially those migrating to the Jabodetabek region. The areas surrounding Tegal, Surakarta, Banyumas, Pekalongan, and Kedu are the main sources of migrants originating from Central Java.

There are several regions in the area that are still centers of poverty and unemployment in Central Java, such as Brebes, Banyumas, Pemalang, Kebumen, and Cilacap Regencies. The poverty rate in those areas last year was more than 190,000 people each.

Similarly, the number of unemployed people in each region averages more than 50,000. With conditions like that, several of these regions are likely to continue to push their citizens to migrate to other areas.

Whatever it may be, the process of migration to improve quality of life is the right of every individual. The government, from central to local level, only serves as a means to facilitate the process of improving welfare.

Indeed, in previous times, development and investment were more concentrated around Jabodetabek, but it is expected that in the following periods, investments will be more evenly distributed, thus promoting regional progress more optimally.

Some migrants who have been successful may also return to develop their home areas with the investment they obtained from their business networks or work in overseas lands. So, leaving or migrating is not only a bad thing for the area left behind, but is also a process of building success gradually in the long term. (R&D COMPAS)