2019 General Election

KOMPAS/WISNU WIDIANTORO

Pro-democracy activists and members of the Consolidation Forum for Sovereign Voters give information to reporters at the Media Center of the General Elections Supervisory Agency (Bawaslu) in Jakarta on Wednesday (25/7/2018). On that occasion, they asked the General Elections Commission (KPU) to open access to the track records of legislative candidates so that the public can also take part in supervising them.

Perhaps Indonesia is among the busiest countries with an upcoming general election. In addition to routinely organizing elections, Indonesia has held more than 1,000 regional elections since 2005. There are nearly no days without an election.

Besides being inefficient, the social and political risks are also high. The simultaneous regional elections held since 2015 are intended to reduce this. So are the simultaneous legislative elections (pileg) and presidential elections (pilpres).

The 2019 general election will be followed by 14 political parties. Four of them are new parties, namely the United Indonesia Party (Perindo), the Working Party, the Indonesian Movement of Change Party (Garuda), and the Indonesian Solidarity Party (PSI). Different from the simultaneous regional elections, the general election (pileg and pilpres) is much more complex and complicated, both for election organizers, political parties and the people.

This is also one of the most exciting general elections. Because, on the one hand with the presidential threshold they have to coalesce in supporting the presidential and vice presidential candidate pairs, on the other hand at the same time they also have to struggle independently to get the legislative seats. In other words, in the presidential election they may be friends, but in legislative elections all are opponents. So,

the interesting question is how will the contestation and political constellation of general elections next year be? What kind of preconditions needs to be established to ensure that the 2019 General Elections continue to produce safe, peaceful, qualified and civilized elections?

Contestation and political constellation after the 2018 regional elections

With the increase of the legislative threshold from 3.5 percent to 4 percent, it can be made certain that the simultaneous contestation will be fiercer. Not only in the contestation over RI 1 (president) and RI 2 (vice president), but also to get into Senayan (House of Representatives -- DPR). Besides the new parties, the lower middle-class political parties are among the most vulnerable. Friction among coalition parties has the high possibility to happen.

Political parties in the simultaneous general elections whose cadres become presidential/vice presidential candidates tend to be more benefited because they have a positive impact on the acquisition of the results of the legislative election. Therefore, even though the formation of party coalitions is not new, it is difficult to deny that the formation of a coalition to support their presidential candidate in 2019 tends to be more difficult. Because, different from the 2014 general elections, where time for pileg and pilpres was separate, with the simultaneous general elections every political party has an interest to put its cadres as the presidential or vice presidential candidates. As a result, it is likely that many coalition parties whose cadres are not represented as the presidential and vice presidential candidates will be more busily campaigning for their legislative candidates than their presidential/vice presidential candidates.

With the provision of parliamentary threshold of 20 percent of seats in the House or 25 percent of the general election votes, theoretically the presidential election could be followed by more than two candidate pairs. However, given the latest development, the 2019 presidential election will likely be followed only by two pairs of presidential/vice presidential candidates. This happened after the National Awakening Party (PKB) joined the incumbent coalition to follow the five other political parties [Indonesian Democratic Parrty of Struggle (PDI-P), Golkar Party, United Development Party (PPP), NasDem Party, and Hanura Party].

It is likely that the other coalition will consist of four remaining parties [Gerindra, National Mandate Party (PAN), Prosperous Justice Party (PKS) and Democratic Party] with Gerindra as having the highest number of seats of the House, namely 73 seats. Even though the name Prabowo Subianto is most widely referred to as its president, there has not been definitive agreement about it. Like the wind, its direction can still change until the last second of the registration of presidential and vice presidential candidates. The political lobby is still fluid, full of dynamics and options. However, there is a strong allegations that no political party will cross into a incumbent coalition, including Democratic Party. Specifically for the last being mentioned, psychological factors of previous presidential elections still seem to be a constraint.

As widely seen, over the last several years Indonesian society has been hit by a kind of social divide, between "Islam" and "nationalist" groups. This happened, in particular, since the existence of a case of religious blasphemy that befell on Basuki Tjahaja Purnama (Ahok) and appeared before and during the Jakarta gubernatorial election in 2017. Even though the case has been settled by the court, its impact still has not disappeared. One of the problems is the fact that there are several cases which appeared later that are perceived to be detrimental to a

particular group. Even though the issue deals with the social case, its impacts have colored and influenced the political world.

On the basis of that, apparently the portrait of the presidential-vice presidential candidate pair, who will be supported by every coalition of political parties, is a duet of nationalist-Islamic figures. The significance of the nationalist-Islamic duet does not mean that Indonesian Muslims are still divided in the santri-abangan groups, but rather because of the less conducive inter-religion relationships at present. In addition to reducing political tension, such a duet is expected to be able to grab the votes from all voting groups.

As a nationalist political party, PDI-P is quite observant in reading this social phenomenon. This can be seen from its efforts to promote Islamic representatives as legislative candidates from 2019 to 2014, such as the former lawyer of Habib Rizieq Shihab and former declarator of Justice Party. It is difficult to deny that the success of the coalition of political parties in supporting Anis-Sandy in the Jakarta gubernatorial election in 2017, among others, was caused by its observant decision to present the candidate pairs that represent "nationalist-Islam" according to socio-political conditions at that time.

Political and security stability

General elections are basically a means of leadership succession within a democratic state. Therefore, ideally the elections should happen peacefully and fairly. However, since the general elections are also a means of the people’s sovereignty in evaluating government performance, the level of peace is largely determined by social, economic, political and legal conditions. The economic condition and law enforcement that are perceived as unfavorable by a part of the people can lead to large expectations that affect national stability. Let

along in the era of social media today and where the community experiences a kind of "social division".

The hustle and bustle of opinion wars appearing in social media recently needs to be scrutinized because its negative impact on national stability. Let alone considering the 2019 presidential election is predicted to take place head to head. So far, not a few of the opinion wars are colored by baseless and counter-productive news as well as the ethnicity, religion, tribe and inter-group (SARA)-scented issues, which has the high potential of vulnerability. For that reason, the firmness, professionalism and neutrality of government and law enforcers are very vital.

As one of the important pillars of democracy, the mainstream media, in particular, should show its contribution to be at the forefront of maintaining national stability. The independence and maturity of the mass media is very important. The mass media should be able to become a supplier of objective news and exercise a social control that cools the people. The interests of the Unitary State of the Republic of Indonesia (NKRI) should be put forward by anyone above the narrow, momentary, individual and group political interests. Non-neutrality will only create social and political instability, encourage the emergence of skepticism and demoralizing stance, as well as providing legal uncertainty that all are not beneficial for NKRI.

Political and security stability is a key word needed in the general elections. So far positive pre-conditions have been relatively developed, especially, during implementation and post-regional elections in 2018. These preconditions should be maintained and, even, enhanced by strengthening synergies among the government, security/law enforcement officials and all relevant stakeholders at the national and local levels. In the future there needs to be anticipation and solution to the collective discontent of the community so as not to grow bigger and

disrupt the stages of the general elections. In addition, the common perspective in maintaining political stability and security to build social energy which is expected to provide a sense of security and stability effects is needed.

What is also needed is the inter-factor cooperation/synergy and the elite (stakeholders) and the community to move the machine of democracy and general elections in order to create a democracy, which is healthy, qualified, and having dignity. The positive role of the mass media (electronic and print) and social media need to be increased so as to avoid political turmoil. The society and the political elite need to be educated more intensely in response to the many hoaxes and counterproductive news.

Survey agencies must be honest, credible, accountable, and not partisan. There needs to be a strong penalty against survey agencies that are "arbitrary" in delivering their results to the public. Accuracy and credibility of survey results should be ensured. Enlightenment and education for the voter community are needed to that the 2019 general elections become a place for the participation of a genuine community, not a mobilization by moving the public in a not-civilized way through vote buying.

Trust building is a must in democratization. The growing trust between the election organizers, political parties and the public is the main requirement of political stability and security in the community and a benchmark for the success of the 2019 general elections. Theoretically the conflicts or disputes in the general elections can be muffled if the general election participants (political parties), the elections organizers [General Election Commission (KPU), General Election Supervisory Agency (Bawaslu), and the Honorary Council of the General Election Organization], the government and law enforcement institutions are

able to demonstrate high professionalism and commitment to success of the general elections at each of their stages.

It is the duty of all parties to realize the peaceful and qualified 2019 general elections to produce a legitimate national leadership succession. So far Indonesia has been able to carry out a secure, peaceful and democratic election. Hopefully the quality of 2019 general elections is much better because the elections are designed as a means of succession of leadership that is inspirational and fair.

R. Siti Zuhro

Research Professor at the Indonesian Institute of Sciences (LIPI)