Coronavirus Triangle
The coronavirus has been terrorizing the world for the past four months. The world is fully gripped by fear. In addition to the health crisis, the world is threatened by the biggest economic crisis in history.
Medical staff members wearing protective gear show their hands with the words written on gloves "Ce la faremo" ("We\'ll make it") written on them as they treat patients suffering from the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in the intensive care unit at the Circolo hospital in Varese, Italy April 9, 2020.
The coronavirus has been terrorizing the world for the past four months. The world is fully gripped by fear. In addition to the health crisis, the world is threatened by the biggest economic crisis in history.
The economic crisis will hopefully not be followed by a social and security crisis, as experienced with the 1998 economic crisis.
Transmission
Johns Hopkins University disclosed that the virus began spreading in early January 2020. Within 90 days until 4 April 2020, its transmission reached 1 million people. Only within 16 days in the same month (April 2020) the victims increased by the second 1 million and only within eight days at the end of April for the third 1 million. If this goes on without major intervention, the next 1 million is likely to occur in less than a week. It means in the first week of May 2020 it will jump to 4 million. Likewise, data on those who died at the end of April reached 227,000 people and will increase in line with the increase in the number of people who have tested positive for the virus.
In Indonesia, since the announcement of the first two people infected on 2 March 2020, in just two months the number exceeded 10,000. If not accompanied by community discipline to stay at home with strict rules and sanctions, maintaining distance, wear masks, wash hands, and other preventive measures, with the growth of transmission of an average of 350 people per day like this week, the next 10,000 confirmed cases are expected to occur in one month, reaching 20,000 people infected by the virus to be accompanied by the rising mortality.
Their similarity is that they were late in taking any action.
Among the 200 countries affected by COVID-19, there are countries that have succeeded in reducing the number of sufferers, but in several others the transmission is expanding. Those considered successful are China, South Korea, Taiwan, Vietnam and New Zealand. The similarities between successful countries is the speed and decisiveness in taking action. Since January 2020 in different ways, China, Vietnam and New Zealand have implemented lockdowns, while South Korea and Taiwan have had no lockdowns. South Korea places up to 60 units of laboratory test kits in each major city. The movement of people is monitored through IT. People who leave their homes are required to wear masks. Since December 2019, Taiwan has been making preparations thanks to their intelligence reports in Wuhan.
What attracts the attention is why developed countries with better health systems with good living standards, such as the United States, Britain, Italy, Spain and France, have severe infections. Their similarity is that they were late in taking any action. They finally took action in March. England, for example, on 14 March 2020, still held a horse race that was watched by more than 10,000 pairs of eyes. Prime Minister Boris Johnson became a victim in addition to several other elites there.
Also read : Winning Against Covid-19
Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen speaks with pupils as she participates in the reopening of Lykkebo School in Valby, after its lockdown due to the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) spread, in Copenhagen, Denmark April 15, 2020.
Countries on this blue continent have different ways of dealing with COVID-19 transmission. An interesting example is in Scandinavia, where three countries have implemented lockdowns, while one other country, Sweden, is not and is more free in the hope that a community immune system will happen. However, based on the results until the end of April 2020, Sweden recorded a death rate of 22 per 100,000 population, in fact Denmark only seven, Norway five, and Finland four.
Like America and European countries, Indonesia only took an important step when announcing the first case, 2 March 2020, almost two weeks later, 15 March 2020, carried out the application of social restrictions by encouraging people to work, study and worship from home. It was followed by the formation of a task force and the imposition of large-scale social restrictions (PSBB), the application of which adapted to the conditions of the respective regions.
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The Indonesian Red Cross (PMI) has been aware of the dangers of this pandemic since January, and has therefore taken steps to prepare. On 5 February 2020, the PMI invited all the chief editors of the media through the Chief Editor Forum to build mutual awareness and dissemination so that the media conveyed warnings or information to the public about the danger of a pandemic that would enter Indonesia. At that time, PMI distributed one box of masks as “supplies” to each editor in chief as a warning accompanied by a firm message, "later the masks will be the most needed goods".
Besides that, PMI began to prepare all equipment and logistics, including volunteers by cooperating with Indonesian Military (TNI) soldiers. Building a logistics and distribution warehouse within three days. Preparing a disinfectant fleet for the purposes of mitigating and preventing the spread of the virus. Reserving 2 million liters of disinfectant and various other logistical needs.
The government has actually also taken precautionary steps: preparing many hospitals to treat the infected ones along with medical equipment and all necessary equipment, such as test kits, laboratories, and personal protective gear for paramedics. The ranks of Indonesian doctors and paramedics have struggled against the COVID-19 outbreak and dozens of them died. We honor their services with prayers that they get a place of honor on His side.
Also read : Post-Covid-19 Indonesia
Indonesia Red Cross (PMI) chairman Jusuf Kalla (second right) and Law and Human Rights Minister Yasonna Laoly talk to an inmate by video at Cipinang Penitentiary, East Jakarta, on March 20. PMI and its Jakarta branches sprayed disinfectant in all of Jakarta’s prisons to curb the spread of COVID-19.
Triangle method
Learning from the experiences of China, South Korea and Taiwan, the choice of steps is, first, to strictly discipline the public by staying at home, by keeping the distance, washing hands, and wearing masks. Second, disinfecting and sterilizing the whole cities. Third, hospitals with good equipment and doctors.
When using a military approach, because this pandemic is like a big war whose enemies are invisible, the role of each line can be divided into three. First, to defend. This part becomes an important role of the community so that they are disciplined to stay at home to avoid the virus so that the virus spread is interrupted. The assumption is that because every movement of humans at once will be the movement of the virus itself. In connection to this, the prohibition of mudik (exodus) with strict supervision is very important. If the virus spreads to rural areas, the handling will be difficult given the limited health infrastructure there. Another threat will emerge: villages as the basis for agricultural production will be disrupted so that a food crisis can occur.
Also read : Coronavirus and Economic Resilience
Second, attack to kill the virus with disinfectant. Because the existence of the virus is unknown, sterilization of the cities is carried out widely in public places, buildings, roads, and villages as much as possible and on objects that are often used by humans. Similar steps were taken by China, South Korea and Taiwan by mobilizing the military on a large scale. Even, there are countries that implemented an extreme way up to disinfecting the roads. PMI specifically mobilized volunteers with the TNI-National Police to use individual disinfecting devices into the deepest parts of public office buildings, houses of worship, bus shelters, and residential sites. Bentor (motorized pedicabs) and pickup trucks comb narrow streets, village alleys. Gunners (trucks) like heavy artillery are used to reach large areas or protocol roads along with strategic points they pass by.
Third, doctors, nurses, and all hospital devices whose services are highly valued will be forced to work harder if the community lacks discipline and without strict sanctions and maximum disinfection efforts to break the virus spread chain. Government and public attention to treatment is very important. However, in order to hold and reduce fatalities, to defend and attack to kill and avoid before the virus spreads will help ease medical duties.
Social economy
Efforts to defend and avoid the virus, by staying at home to limit contact, will certainly have a major impact on the economy and social lives of many countries, including Indonesia. Offices, hotels and restaurants, flights which are all closed, have a long effect or a negative multiplier effect. Purchasing power falls with the drop in production figures. Moreover, in the economy with a worldwide supply chain, all are affected, even including the mosques, which will also be in deficit because there is no one to fill the charity box.
Therefore, the series of health crises will continue up to the stage of the greatest economic crisis in world history beyond the 1929 recession. It will be difficult to improve it in a short time because of the vast scale. With around 200 affected countries, they will struggle to take care of themselves out of the crisis so it is difficult to expect help from other countries. Institutions that can be expected include the World Bank, the Asian Development Bank, and the International Monetary Fund.
In this situation, the priority of assistance should be directed to the poor and laid off. To them, direct cash assistance (BLT) is the fastest and easiest program compared to giving packages in bags. The distribution in packages is time consuming, slower, and more expensive because it must be packaged before distribution. On the other hand, it is not necessarily in accordance with the needs of the beneficiaries. The proof can be seen from protests from several regional officials. When the community is in difficulty, assistance needs to be simplified and arrive more quickly in the hands of beneficiaries.
In 2005 we had the experience of channeling BLT following an increase in fuel prices by up to 126 percent. By utilizing the extensive network BRI and Post Office, supported by complete National Population and Family Planning Board (BKKBN) data, it only takes one month to distribute BLT even though the World Bank requires 11 months. Today, if 25 percent of Indonesia\'s population experiences difficulties or around 67 million people, around 16 million households, are given BLT worth Rp 1 million per household per month for six months, it will require funds of Rp 96 trillion.
If only the government disburses BLT of around Rp 100 trillion, it would certainly increase purchasing power which would ultimately drive the wheels of the economy and funds would flow back to the banking industry. Meanwhile, MSME businesses that run out of capital need help because they involve small and medium entrepreneurs. On the other hand, helping entrepreneurs, including large businessmen whose owners have fled to Singapore for fear of the coronavirus, will not be effective as long as the cause, the coronavirus, is not resolved. Tax stimulation certainly reduces the burden, but with almost all businesses experiencing difficulties, it is certain that tax revenues will drop dramatically.
The economic policies being taken must be highly committed and will not be bailed out in banks or the like. Because it violates the 2016 Law on Handling the Financial Crisis, which has the potential to be manipulative, such as the manipulation of the Bank Indonesia Liquidity Support (BLBI) in 1998. The finance minister and BI have been seriously trying because the crisis will surely reduce government revenue, on the other hand spending rises so that the deficit enlarges, so that eventually government debt will increase.
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Jusuf Kalla
The principle of resolving this pandemic is to resolve the cause, avoid and attack with disinfectant so that the virus spread is cut off and is no longer transmitted. So important are the disinfectants that US President Donald Trump even suggested that patients be injected with disinfectant. Of course, this is dangerous because disinfectants are only useful if used properly. In addition to the maximum care of the team of doctors and paramedics, by uniting the power of this triangle, we can defeat COVID-19 while waiting for experts to find drugs and vaccines.
M Jusuf Kalla, Chairman of the Indonesian Red Cross (PMI) and the Indonesian Mosque Council (DMI)l
