Public Welfare Under Pressure

KOMPAS/RIZA FATHONI

Residents line up for the distribution of rice from a car to those affected by the COVID-19 outbreak in Pluit subdistrict, Muara Angke Penjaringan, North Jakarta, on Friday (22/5/2020). The Jakarta Police Directorate of Narcotics cooperated with the community to help middle- and lower-economic groups affected by COVID-19 by providing a mobile rice barn as a means of sharing among fellow community elements.

JAKARTA, KOMPAS — The Covid-19 epidemic has generated great pressure on public welfare, in terms of both health and economy. The impacts on welfare, unless addressed properly, can disrupt social cohesion as well as political stability, which could then eventually erode national resilience.

This condition could, in the end, upset the progress Indonesia has made in building resilience against social, economic, political and cohesion pressures, which could then cause it to become a failed state.

The Fragile States Index (FSI) 2010-2020 ranks Indonesia seventh among the top 10 countries that have shown the most significant improvement over the past decade. However, Indonesia still ranks 96th out of 178 countries. The higher a country’s ranking, the more resilient it is.

Also read : Indonesia Moving Away from “Failed State” Status, Good News and a Wake-Up Call

Since the epidemic is exerting considerable pressure on public welfare, the government needs to study every policy thoroughly as to whether they have a direct effect on society, especially the middle and lower classes.

This is a vital need, as according to the data from the Manpower Ministry, 1,304,777 workers have been laid off from 43,690 companies to 20 April 2020. Meanwhile, 241,431 workers have been dismissed from 41,236 companies. The figures exclude workers of micro, small and medium enterprises (MSMEs).

Public policy professor Erwan Agus Purwanto of Gadjah Mada University, Yogyakarta, when contacted from Jakarta on Wednesday (27/5/2020), said that the epidemic impacted not only health, but also economic issues such as in the increasing unemployment rate, declining incomes and growing poverty. Unless these are appropriately and promptly responded to, they would burden social cohesion.

KOMPAS/ANTONY LEE

The country with the best and worst developments in the 2010-2020 Fragile State Index. This is seen on the fragilestatesindex.org online page.

As a result, group grievance was growing. “This creates a chain effect of issues rising one after the other. Do not let it grow into a social issue. This must be anticipated from the beginning. Those directly affected should receive immediate assistance so they can continue to have hope,” he said.

The FSI 2020 also indicates that Indonesia faces a challenge in managing group grievance, in which it has scored lower, from 7.3 to 7.4. The higher a country scores on a scale of 0-10, the worse its performance.

Group grievance is the only indicator in which Indonesia has scored worse since the index was established in 2006, when it scored 6.3.

Erwan said that if Indonesia failed to overcome group grievance, it could worsen its standing in politics with declining public confidence in the government.

Also read: Indonesia Keeps Improving

“Timeliness and accurate targeting in policymaking are critical. This is followed by the government’s policy consistency in siding with those people in need of support. [Policy] consistency should be constantly shown for the duration of this crisis until conditions gradually return to normal,” he added.

Researcher Arya Fernandes of the Center for Strategic and International Studies, Jakarta said that the epidemic would most likely erode Indonesia’s strong indicators in the FSI 2020. Indonesia averaged a score of 4 in state legitimacy, economic decline and uneven economic development, as well as refugees and IDPs (internally displaced people).

KOMPAS/PRADIPTA PANDU

Political Observer Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) Arya Fernandes

In his view, unless the pressure on welfare was overcome, legitimacy and public confidence in the government would decline. “Trust is capital for political stability. If the citizens no longer trust the government, this will give rise to a chaotic situation,” said Arya.

Therefore, he said that the government should measure and study every policy to ensure that they boost public confidence. Trust would be fostered when interministerial policies and central-regional policies were in conformity.

“So, there is no regulatory overlap. Collaboration is needed during this period of crisis by using the same indicators or measures. It’s also important to ensure that the policies that have been adopted are consistent to avoid confusion in the regions,” he said.

Trust is capital for political stability. If the citizens no longer trust the government, this will give rise to a chaotic situation

Arya added that the government had attended to economic issues through its social assistance policies, but the distribution of aid should be monitored to ascertain accurate targeting and transparency.

In the meantime, House of Representatives (DPR) Commission II member Arif Wibowo, of the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) faction, said that the government must provide clear direction and maintain a single voice across the central-regional leadership during the epidemic. This way would enable it to settle every problem promptly and correctly in a unified manner.

Arif agreed that the epidemic was having a major impact on the economy. The government should thus consider the potential for a food crisis, and urged the government to move actively toward a policy of food sovereignty, rather than food resilience.

KOMPAS/P RADITYA MAHENDRA YASA

Farmers plant rice in a rice field in Bulusari village, Sayung district, Demak regency, Central Java, on Monday (4/5/2020). The government will give cash assistance of Rp 600,000 to poor farmers each per month.

Public debate

DPR Commission IX member Netty Prasetiyani of the Prosperous Justice Party faction said that inappropriate government policies thus far had sparked public debate and expanded the risk of further Covid-19 transmission. These policies included relaxing the large-scale social restrictions (PSBB) and pursuing “the new normal” while the number of confirmed Covid-19 cases remained high. “The flip-flopping government policies have finally led to civil disobedience. It is this sort of thing that causes public dissatisfaction,” she said.

Regarding the government’s policy on “the new normal”, Covid-19 rapid response task force chief Doni Monardo confirmed that the government had allowed 87 regencies and municipalities with no confirmed cases to resume a broader range of activities. But he noted that the decision to resume activities was up to the regents, mayors and governors of a region.